Replication crisis and debates about p-values have raised doubts about what we can statistically infer from research findings, both in experimental and observational studies. With a view to the present debate on inferential errors, this paper systematizes and discusses experimental designs with...

Replication crisis and debates about p-values have raised doubts about what we can statistically infer from research findings, both in experimental and observational studies. With a view to the ongoing debate on inferential errors, this paper systematizes and discusses experimental designs with...

It has often been noted that the “null-hypothesis-significance-testing” (NHST) framework is an inconsistent hybrid of Neyman-Pearson’s “hypothesis testing” and Fisher’s “significance testing” that almost inevitably causes misinterpretations. To facilitate a realistic assessment...

Investitionsentscheidungen sind i.d.R. durch Unsicherheit, Irreversibilität und zeitliche Flexibilität gekennzeichnet. Bei einfachen Kapitalwertberechnungen wird dies nicht berücksichtigt. Aber auch die flexible Investitionsplanung mit Hilfe von Entscheidungsbäumen, die den am weitesten...

Claiming analogy with financial option pricing the real options approach assumes that the present value of investment cash flows (or: real asset value) can be replicated by a risk-free financial portfolio; that is, this present value is considered to be equivalent to an asset value in a complete...

Seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre werden „Wetterderivate“ als neues Instrument zum Management wetterbedingter Mengenrisiken diskutiert. Im Gegensatz zu schadensbezogenen Versicherungen erfolgt der Hedge bei Wetterderivaten durch an Wetterindizes (Niederschlagssummen, Temperatursummen etc.)...