A number of papers have shown that rapid growth in private sector credit is a strong predictor of a banking crisis. This paper will ask if credit growth is itself the cause of a crisis, or is it the combination of credit growth and external deficits? This paper estimates a probabilistic model to...

This working paper was written by J. Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Eric Van Wincoop (University of Virginia and NBER).The correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 127 advanced and developing countries. We provide...

Abandoning an objective function with multiple targets and adopting single mandate can be an effective way for a central bank to overcome the classic time-inconsistency problem. We show that the choice of a particular single mandate depends on an economy's level of trade openness and the...

We document that the correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This...