In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and … declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at the end of the nineties of the last century. 2) The business cycle …

Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle …, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle component of output. The obtained trend … time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in cycles. The method assumes that output can be represented by a non …

In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components … the long-run development during the last 50 years can be represented by a segmented linear trend with a break in the drift … rate in the early seventies. A further result is a remarkable decrease in the volatility of the cycle component and the …

Perron and Wada (2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which … a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle component of output. The obtained trend clearly re ….ects the structural change undergone in the early 1990s. After a steep decrease of the trend or potential GDP as a result of …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

of persistence in the data. Both appear to be mean-reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary whilst the …

of persistence in the data. Both appear to be mean-reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary whilst the …

of persistence in the data. Both appear to be mean-reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary whilst the …

of persistence in the data. Both appear to be mean-reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary whilst the …