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Market Sentiment, Financial Fragility, and Economic Activity : The Role of Corporate Securities Issuance

Dieckelmann, Daniel - 2021

Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237318

The relative volatility of commodity prices: A reappraisal

Arezki, Rabah; Lederman, Daniel; Zhao, Hongyan - 2011

This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280809

The relative volatility of commodity prices : a reappraisal

Arezki, Rabah; Lederman, Daniel; Zhao, Hongyan - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009489287

Classifying US business cycles 1948 to 1997: Meyer/Weinberg revisited

Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316634

Classifying US business cycles 1948 to 1997: Meyer/Weinberg revisited

Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772062

The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001-2011 : A Comparative Historical Approach

Field, Alexander J. - 2015

This paper examines the interwar housing cycle in comparison to what transpired in the United States between 2001 and 2011. The 1920s experienced a boom in construction and prolonged retardation in building in the 1930s, resulting in a swing in residential construction’s share of GDP, and its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177399

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

Nicholas, Tom - 2011

Using new data on market-based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67 percent at the end of 1932 and hovering around that value for most of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134376

Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle since 1959

Hollander, Hylton - 2019

The monetary authority's choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895445

Evolving Credit and the U.S. Macroeconomy : 1920-2011

Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan - 2015

This paper studies evolving macroeconomic consequences of adverse credit spread shocks for the US economy over the past century. The key objective is to characterize and quantify how the credit transmission mechanism has changed in shaping the macroeconomy during major macroeconomic episodes. I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022619

Uncontrolled Land Development and the Duration of the Depression in the United States

Field, Alexander J. - 2009

Aggregate economic activity was heavily influenced by the construction sector's expansion, collapse, and failure to revive during the interwar years. The 1920s building boom was the first to respond to the potential of the automobile and the last to be largely unplanned. Its uncoordinated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047690