The study investigates long-run relationships between futures and spot prices of cocoa on the New York CSCE and London Fox, respectively, and between both markets. By means of the Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach and the inclusion of interest rates as conditioning variables, the three...

The study investigates long-run relationships between futures and spot prices of cocoa on the New York CSCE and London Fox, respectively, and between both markets. By means of the Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach and the inclusion of interest rates as conditioning variables, the three...

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price...

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price...

The study uses the concept of cointegration to examine long-run relationships between futures (and spot) prices of cocoa and coffee on the New York CSCE and London Fox. The study is also an attempt to analyze price trends of related commodities on the same and different commodity exchanges. Our...

Tests for the efficiency of commodity arbitrage typically fail to find cointegration relationships between spot and futures prices and between markets. The reported study investigates the issue for spot and futures prices of cocoa on New York and London markets by means of the Johansen maximum...