The paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical results are mixed. Our regression-based analyses suggest that the skewness of the distribution...

We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the...

Using monthly data from 1953 to 2003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns in real-time. Our empirical findings show that political variables, chosen on the basis of widely used...

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...

Oft wird befürchtet, dass die Globalisierung zu einer erhöhten Schwankungsanfälligkeit besonders kleiner offener Volkswirtschaften führen könnte. Auch wird vermutet, dass die nationalen Konjunkturzyklen im Zeitalter der Globalisierung synchroner verlaufen als zuvor. Sind diese Vermutungen...

Es wird untersucht, ob die Volatilität der Aktienmärkte im Zeitablauf zugenommen hat. Im Gegensatz zu oft geäußerten Vermutungen ergibt die Schätzung und die Prüfung von Modellen bedingter Varianzen lediglich sehr schwache Hinweise auf eine gestiegene Variabilität der Kurse. Probit...

Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 through 1998, the relationship between fluctuations of prices in financial markets and inflation is analyzed. The results of Granger-causality tests reveal that stock market has no predictive power volatility for inflation uncertainty, et vice versa....