We use the recently proposed linear opinion pool methodology of Garratt et al. (2014) to construct real-time ensemble nowcast densities of the output gap for Switzerland over an out-of-sample period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The model space consists of a large number of bivariate VAR...

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...

Using data on 558 MFIs in 80 countries for the period from 2002 to 2007, this paper provides empirical evidence that the quality of a country's external governance system positively affects the local microbanks' economic success in terms of ROA and operational self-sufficiency. In contrast,...