This paper devises a methodology to compare the accuracy of prediction markets and polls. The data of the Exchange of Future Events (xFuture) for Taiwan's 2006 mayoral elections and 2008 presidential election show that the prediction markets outperform the opinion polls in various indices of...

This study successfully establishes the principal component analysis with discriminant analysis (PCA-DA) model to assess the accuracy of contracts in the prediction markets ex ante based on the highest-price criterion. Trained by the xFuture data (7,274 contracts of future events) from...

President Ma Ying-Jeou's strategy to engage Taiwan in regional market integration calls for the use of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China as a pathway to join the East Asian economic integration. This article reviews the ECFA and discusses its potential...