Given the rapidly evolving nature of financial globalization, this paper models and predicts financial integration in a changing world. By decomposing integration into global risk, local risk and estimation risk, we argue that greater integration is mainly driven by global factors, not...

This paper accounts for informational frictions when modelling the time-varying relationship between crude oil prices, traditional fundamentals and expectations. Informational frictions force a wedge between oil prices and supply and/or demand shocks, especially during periods of elevated risk...

Unconditional asset pricing models have generally found it challenging to identify evidence ofrisk aversion. This paper addresses this challenge by examining whether currency portfolios display an intertemporal risk-return relationship. We consider time-varying relations because investors'...

Pricing of capital share risks provides a novel link between macroeconomicsand finance. Our paper adopts the Epstein-Zin type utility framework andthe Bansal and Yaron's (2004) long-run risk model to derive an heterogeneousasset pricing model that extends Lettau et al.'s (2019) capital share...

We evaluate stock return predictability using a fully flexible Bayesian framework, which explicitly allows for different degrees of time-variation in coefficients and in forecasting models. We believe that asset return predictability can evolve quickly or slowly, based upon market conditions,...

The UK is commonly viewed as having a ‘market oriented’ financial system, in contrast to other European countries which are seen as ‘bank dominated’. In the light of this supposition, we investigate sectoral balance sheet data for evidence of differences in financial...

Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies....

This paper examines international capital flows to emerging and developing countries. We assess whether commonalities exist, the permanence of shocks to commonalities and their determinants. Also, we consider individual country coherence with global capital flows and we measure the extent of...

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a...