The authors discuss several tests to check for the presence of selectivity bias in estimators based on panel data. One approach to test for selectivity bias is to specify the selection mechanism explicitly and estimate it jointly with the model of interest. Alternatively, one can derive the...

This paper analyzes the properties of a number of estimators that can be used to estimate short-run persistence in mutual fund returns. When data for different funds are pooled, it is advisable to correct for cross-sectional differences in expected returns. However, these adjustments may induce...

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend...

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for portfolio selection under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. First, we specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S\&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining the...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time-varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

In this paper we formulate two tractable two-factor affine term structure models, imposing weak assumptions on the distributions of the measurement errors involved in the different yields. Exploiting the implied moment conditions, the models are estimated by the generalized method of moments...

Poor performing mutual funds are less likely to be observed in the data sets that are typically available. This so-called survivor problem can induce a substantial bias in measures of the performance of the funds and the persistence of this performance. Many studies have recently argued that...

In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S\&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...