This Staff Memo presents an indicator used for monitoring and forecasting inflation at Norges Bank. The indicator is designed to capture international price impulses that impact the input costs of domestic firms. Our analysis indicates that the marked increase in the cost of imported...

This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

In this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in forecasting in Norges Bank, the emphasis in this paper will be on the empirical...

This paper investigates the responses of house prices and household credit to monetary policy shocks in Norway, using Bayesian structural VAR models. I find that the effect of a monetary policy shock on house prices is large, while the effect on household credit is muted. This is consistent with...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is...

We assess the strength of the impact of a monetary policy shock on financial crisis probability in Norway. Policy effects go via the interest rate impact on credit, house prices and banks' wholesale funding. We find that the impact of a monetary policy shock on crisis probability is about 10...

In this memo we provide technical documentation of the impulse responses to some representative shocks in NEMO. The impulse responses are shown both with the new specification of the monetary policy loss function presented in MPR 1/12 and with the specification used in the recent MPRs. The new...

This paper explains the basic mechanisms of Norges Bank's core model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting (NEMO). NEMO has recently been extended with an oil sector to incorporate important channels of shocks to the Norwegian economy. We show how the effects of a change in the oil price...