Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that...

This paper examines the roles of U.S. financial innovation, financial globalization, and the savings glut hypothesis in explaining the rise in U.S. external debt, first in a portfolio balance model, and then empirically. Perhaps surprisingly, financial deepening and falling home bias in...

This paper sheds light on the attractiveness of U.S. assets by studying dollar risk premiums, calculated using Consensus exchange rate forecasts, and linking them to bilateral capital flows. The paper finds that the presence of negative dollar risk premiums (i.e. expectations of a dollar...

This paper estimates the short-term and long-run price and income elasticity of Indian exports, and investigates the role of supply-side bottlenecks in shaping India's export demand relationship. We use disaggregated export volume data for 45 Indian industries over the period 1990-2013, as well...

Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious...

This paper examines the roles of U.S. financial innovation, financial globalization, and the savings glut hypothesis in explaining the rise in U.S. external debt, first in a portfolio balance model, and then empirically. Perhaps surprisingly, financial deepening and falling home bias in...

In this paper, we derive two new measures of international relative prices for Norway. Developments in these new measures follow rather closely movements in the CPI-based real effective exchange rate through the 1990s, but diverge after 2000—suggesting that the costs of living in Norway...