The current and projected low fertility levels for Europe and the continuous increases in life expectancy imply that the region will go through an unprecedented process of population aging, leading to sizable changes in the age structure of European societies. After reviewing the existing...

In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method dealing with model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for different types of spatial links. We contribute to existing methods that handle spatial...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vector autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock...

This paper reassesses the impact of in°ation on long-term growth for a panel of 14 EU countries. While previous research focuses on a linear nexus or allows for a piecewise linear relationship with one single threshold, we take account of a more complex relationship. We use a theoretical...