In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral...

This paper describes the new forecasting tool used by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) to derive near-term forecasts for GDP and imports for five Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. An error...

In this contribution, we tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic...

In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method dealing with model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for different types of spatial links. We contribute to existing methods that handle spatial...

We assess empirically the vertical price transmission mechanism between producer and consumer prices of milk products in Austria using monthly data for the period from January 1996 to February 2010. We consider explicitly the existence of asymmetries in the adjustment to the long-run equilibrium...

This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross‐country data of 65 countries over six 5‐year periods (1970–2000) and consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging...

In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in three selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies of the EU, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral...

Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to...

Using a theoretical model based on dynamic optimizing agents, we test empirically the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP) for 26 OECD countries. The empirical specification allows us to obtain estimates of the structural parameters of the theoretical model and to test directly the hypothesis...

Martin Ravallion ("Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?" American Economic Review, 102(1): 504-23; 2012) presents evidence against the existence of poverty convergence in aggregate data despite the conditional convergence of per capita income levels and the close linkage between growth and...