This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran et al. (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 22 (2004), pp. 129-162), where country-specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of...

This paper re-examines the panel unit root tests proposed by Chang (2002). She establishes asymptotic independence of the t-statistics when integrable functions of lagged dependent variable are used as instruments even if the original series are cross sectionally dependent. From this rather...

A number of panel unit root tests that allow for cross section dependence have been proposed in the literature, notably by Bai and Ng (2002), Moon and Perron (2003), and Phillips and Sul (2002) who use orthogonalization type procedures to asymptotically eliminate the cross dependence of the...

In this paper we examine how social interactions affect consumption decisions at various levels of aggregation in a life-cycle economy made up of peer groups. For this purpose, we consider two analytically solvable life-cycle models, one under certainty equivalent behavior and one under...

This paper extends the transformed maximum likelihood approach for estimation of dynamic panel data models by Hsiao, Pesaran and Tahmiscioglu (2002) to the case where the errors are cross-sectionally heteroskedastic. This extension is not trivial due to the incidental parameters problem that...

Sir Richard Stone, knighted 1978 and 1984 Nobel Laureate in Economics, was one of the pioneers of national income and social accounts, and one of the few economists of his generation to have faced the challenge of economics as a science by combining theory and measurement within a cohesive...

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undetermined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...

Model specification and select are recurring themes in econometric analysis. Both topics become considerably more complicated in the case of large-dimensional data sets where the set of specification possibilities can become quite large. In the context of linear regression models, penalised...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...