This paper gives a test of overidentifying restrictions that is robust to many instruments and heteroskedasticity. It is based on a jackknife version of the Sargan test statistic, having a numerator that is the objective function minimized by the JIVE2 estimator of Angrist, Imbens, and Krueger...

In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...

We take an agnostic view of the Phillips curve debate, and carry out an empirical investigation of the relative and absolute efficacy of Calvo sticky price (SP), sticky information (SI), and sticky price with indexation models (SPI), with emphasis on their ability to mimic inflationary dynamics....

Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic “indicators”...

In this paper, we empirically assess the predictive accuracy of a large group of models based on the use of principle components and other shrinkage methods, including Bayesian model averaging and various bagging, boosting, LASSO and related methods Our results suggest that model averaging does...

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...

This paper derives the limiting distributions of alternative jackknife IV (JIV ) estimators and gives formulae for accompanying consistent standard errors in the presence of heteroskedasticity and many instruments. The asymptotic framework includes the many instrument sequence of Bekker (1994)...

The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to …nancial and more generally time series econo- metrics. In this paper, we begin by surveying models of volatility, both discrete and continuous, and then we summarize some selected empirical …ndings from the literature. In...

In this paper, the authors empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, they carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process,...