Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich in einer der dramatischsten Episoden ihrer jüngsten Geschichte. Die weltweite Produktion von Gütern und Dienstleistungen verzeichnet einen Einbruch in einem seit der Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929/30 nicht gekannten Ausmaß. Aber neben diesen ökonomischen Effekten...

A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypotheses. We...

Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard two-region...

A growing strand of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer and larger than the business cycle and that its importance is increasing over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach which is suitable to test these hypotheses. We parametrically estimate the whole...

Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard two-region...

Against the background of the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard...

This paper studies the dynamics of sovereign risk, fiscal policy and the macroeconomy in a two-country monetary union framework under the assumption of a heterogeneous perception of the determinants of sovereign risk by the government and the market participants. The macroeconomic volatility...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

This paper studies the implications of heterogeneous capital gain expectations on output andasset prices. We consider a disequilibrium macroeconomic model where agents' expectations on future capital gains affect aggregate demand. Agents' beliefs take two forms - fundamentalist and chartist -...

We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of...