The paper posits the existence of a minimum mark-up loan interest rate threshold, which is identified using a long-term bank demand curve for excess reserves. At the threshold rate, the risk adjusted marginal revenue is equal to the marginal cost of extending loans. An excess reserves-loan (RL)...

This paper studies the dynamics of macroeconomic risk, fiscal policy and the macroeconomy in a two-country monetary union framework, under the assumption that agents do not have rational expectations, but use heuristics to determine their consumption over time, as well as to assess macroeconomic...

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...

A simple model illustrates interactions between the 'primary' fiscal deficit (total deficit minus interest payments), economic growth and debt. The deficit/income ratio responds countercyclically to growth while growth may respond positively (a 'Keynes' case) or negatively (à la 'Merkel') to...

In this paper we study the implications of the present broad banking system for macroeconomic stability. We show that when commercial banks are allowed to trade in financial assets (here equities) as a substitute for traditional lending, the macroeconomic system is likely to be an unstable one....

In this paper the role of different types of labor market frictions in the dynamics of output and inflation is investigated. For this purpose, the Keynes–Goodwin model discussed in Chen et al. (2006) and Franke et al. (2006) is extended by a labor search and matching module along the lines of...

In this paper we propose a composite indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models. For this purpose, we use a large set of monthly macroeconomic and financial leading indicators from the German and US economies. Alternative dynamic probit regressions...