Many popular techniques for determining a securities firm's value-at-risk are based upon the calculation of the historical volatility of returns to the assets that comprise the portfolio and of the correlations between them. One such approach is the JP Morgan RiskMetrics methodology using...

The development of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (MGARCH) models from the original univariate specifications represented a major step forward in the modelling of time series. MGARCH models permit time-varying conditional covariances as well as variances,...

We consider the stock performance of America's 100 Best Corporate Citizens following the annual survey by Business Ethics. We examine both possible short-term announcement effects around the time of the survey's publication, and whether longer-term returns are higher for firms that are listed as...

This paper develops a performance management tool and considers its application to the football industry. Specifically, the resulting model evaluates the extent to which the performance of English Premier League football club managers can be attributed to skill or luck when measured separately...

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long‐term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short‐term cycles of each...

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value‐at‐risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect...

This article investigates the effect of modeling extreme events on the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements for three LIFFE futures contracts. The use of internal models will be permitted under the European Community Capital Adequacy Directive II and will be widely adopted in the...