This work compares the accuracy of different measures of Value at Risk (VaR) of fixed income portfolios calculated on the basis of different multi-factor empirical models of the term structure of interest rates (TSIR). There are three models included in the comparison: (1) regression models, (2)...

This book contains a sampling of recent ERS research illustrating the breadth of the Agency’s research on current policy issues: from biofuels to food consumption to land conservation to patterns of trade for agricultural products. What you won’t find in this collection is any mention of...

Climate science has made enormous progress over the last two decades in understanding the nature of earth's climate and the changes that are taking place. Under climate change projections, we can say with some confidence that the Australian climate will continue to become hotter, and...

Agricultural insurance in Ukraine is mostly offered on the basis of traditional products including PMCI, named perils and single peril coverage. The index concept was introduced in 2001 though until 2005 the insurance companies provided index crop insurance through area-based yield index...

The ornamental horticultural industry continues to be one of the most rapidly expanding sectors in agriculture. This study examined a decision model for landscape plant production based on portfolio analysis. A quadratic programming model was developed to generate an optimal crop portfolio for a...

This report examines current trends in the U.S. grain industry. Many identity preservation(IP) grain systems have emerged recently, driven by a confluence of supply and demand factors. IP grain requirements for specific production protocols, marketing channels, and quality assurance depend on...

This paper adapts a generalized expected utility (GEU) maximization model (Epstein and Zin, 1989 and 1991) to examine the intertemporal risk management of wheat producers in the Pacific Northwest. Optimization results based on simulated data indicate the feasibility of the GEU optimization as a...

Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture...

A comparison of decision rules has been made for case studies of corn production using subsurface drip irrigation under three agricultural management practices (no irrigation, uniform irrigation, and variable rate irrigation). The uniform irrigation strategy appeared to perform the best than the...

We present a general framework for testing the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts. The approach is based on the observation that violations – the days on which portfolio losses exceed the VaR – should be unpredictable. Specifically, these violations form a martingale difference...