There is a vast empirical literature rejecting uncovered interest parity(UIP) on the basis of regressions of the actual exchange rate change against the forward premium/discount. In this paper, whilst we confirm the conventional regression analyses, we argue that they constitute only an indirect...

This article analyzes the main existing theories on income and population city growth: the existence of increasing returns to scale, the importance of locational fundamentals, and random growth. To do this we develop a nonlinearity test that is implemented to a dataset on urban, climatological...

Backtesting methods are statistical tests designed to uncover value-at-risk (VaR) models not capable of reporting the correct unconditional coverage probability or filtering the serial dependence in the data. We show in this paper that these methods are subject to the presence of model risk...

We make use of quantile regression theory to obtain a combination of individual potentially-biased VaR forecasts that is optimal because, by construction, it meets the correct out-of-sample conditional coverage criterion ex post. This enables a Wald-type conditional quantile forecast...

In moments of distress downside risk measures like Lower Partial Moments (LPM) are more appropriate than the standard variance to characterize risk. The goal of this paper is to study how to compare portfolios in these situations. In order to do that we show the close connection between...