Governments provide public information about economic conditions to reduce information imperfections and facilitate efficient allocation of resources. Do households in developing countries rely on public signals to inform themselves about market conditions? To identify the importance of public...

The difficulty in modelling inflation and the significance in discovering the underlying data generating process of inflation is expressed in an ample literature regarding inflation forecasting. In this paper we evaluate nonlinear machine learning and econometric methodologies in forecasting the...

We estimate the value of the embedded option in the U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The embedded option value exhibits time variation that is correlated with periods of deflationary expectations. We construct embedded option explanatory variables that are statistically and...

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trendinflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trendinflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflationexpectations in...

Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current mainstream monetary policy analysis, arguing that the standard notion --that "determinacy" of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium suffices to imply that stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect....

In this paper we estimate the value of the embedded option in U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The option value exhibits significant time variation that is correlated with periods of deflationary expectations. We use our estimated option values to construct an embedded option...

This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at...

This paper explores the role of oil prices in the inflation-linked bond markets. Early proponents of inflation-linked bonds highlighted their role in protecting against future inflation, portfolio diversification, asset-liability matching, and use as a commitment tool for monetary policy in...

In this paper we estimate the value of the embedded option in U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The option value exhibits significant time variation that is correlated with periods of deflationary expectations. We use our estimated option values to construct an embedded option...

This paper presents new insights into the dynamics and determinants of arbitrage mispricing in and across seven of the world's largest and most liquid financial markets. Specifically, this paper analyzes mispricing between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (ILB mispricing) in the G7 government...