This note identifies supply factors, particularly the exchange rate, as key drivers of inflation in South Africa. Demand factors play a negligible role, with a flat Phillips curve apparent since the inception of the country's inflation targeting regime. The Phillips curve flattened further with...

Since the early 2000s, inflation in Russia has never fallen below 6%, except for brief intervals following the major crisis of 2008 and the changes in 2012 to the seasonal indexation of administered prices.Persistently high inflation expectations have posed a challenge to the Bank of Russia in...

Inflation in Israel has been below the inflation target for over two years now and inflation expectations at short horizons have followed actual inflation to below the target. The low inflation outturns are the result of sharp, negative external and domestic price level shocks, including the...

Indonesia has been experiencing relatively low and stable inflation for the last five years. Currently, inflation has switched to a low inflation regime, thanks mainly to better anchored inflation expectations owing to the more credible inflation targeting framework (ITF) adopted in July 2005....

Empirical evidence following conventional tests suggests that inflation expectations in Colombia might not be rational, although the period of disinflation included in the sample makes it difficult to verify this conclusion. Inflation expectations display close ties with observed past and...

Inflation has been off-target for some time in many economies, both advanced and emerging (Graph 1). Whereas advanced economies (AEs) have mostly seen inflation below target, the experience among emerging market economies (EMEs) has been mixed. Inflation has been below target in several EMEs in...

We propose an unobserved components model with stochastic volatility and structural shocks to explore the relevant factors that influence trend inflation in the USA. Using structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy, we find that four structural shocks have...

This paper carries out the task of evaluating inflation forecasts from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, using the real-time data set for macroeconomists as a source of real-time data. The author examines the magnitude and patterns of revisions to the inflation...