We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change...

In June 2014 the ECB became the first major central bank to lower one of its key policy rates to negative territory. The theoretical and empirical literature is silent on whether banks’ reaction would be different when the policy rate is lowered to negative levels compared to a standard...

We add downward nominal wage rigidity to a standard New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages, where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is allowed to bind. We find that wage rigidity not only reduces the frequency of zero bound episodes but also mitigates the severity of...

We propose an arbitrage-free shadow-rate term structure model to analyze the euro-area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields turned negative at various maturities. In the model the 'shadow rate' can reach any positive or negative level, while the actual one-month rate cannot fall...

The analysis of monetary developments have always been a cornerstone of the ECB’s monetaryanalysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demandmodels provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stabilityover the medium term....

The New View on fiscal policy (as coined by Furman 2016) represents a rethinking of the main-stream consensus on the optimal macroeconomic policy mix. It focuses on a reassessment of the relative effectiveness of fiscal policy and its ability to stabilise the economy when monetary policy reaches...