This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal...

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households' inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households use to inform themselves about monetary policy are closely related to their...

Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households' inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households use to inform themselves about monetary policy are closely related to their...

The Bank of Japan has used unconventional monetary policies to fight deflation and stabilize the financial system since the late 1990s. While the Bank of Japan's reflation efforts have evolved over time, inflation and inflation expectations have remained stubbornly low. This paper examines the...

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC's target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates information from professional forecasters, household and business surveys, and the...