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Distributions of posterior quantiles via matching

Kolotilin, Anton; Wolitzky, Alexander - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 19 (2024) 4, pp. 1399-1413

We offer a simple analysis of the problem of choosing a statistical experiment to optimize the induced distribution of … posterior medians or, more generally, q-quantiles for any q ∈ (0,1). We show that a single experiment-the q-quantile matching … experiment-implements all implementable distributions of posterior q-quantiles, with different distributions spanned by different …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015135337

Innovation adoption by forward-looking social learners

Frick, Mira; Ishii, Yuhta - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 19 (2024) 4, pp. 1505-1541

We build a model studying the effect of an economy's potential for social learning on the adoption of innovations of uncertain quality. Assuming consumers are forward-looking (i.e., recognize the value of waiting for information), we analyze how qualitative and quantitative features of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015135353

Randomized collective choices based on a fractional tournament

Sprumont, Yves - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 20 (2025) 1, pp. 57-92

An extension rule assigns to each fractional tournament x (specifying, for every pair of social alternatives a and b, the proportion xab of voters who prefer a to b) a random choice function y (specifying a collective choice probability distribution for each subset of alternatives), which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015332580

Gradual learning from incremental actions

Laiho, Tuomas; Murto, Pauli; Salmi, Julia - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 20 (2025) 1, pp. 93-130

We introduce a collective experimentation problem where a continuum of agents choose the timing of irreversible actions under uncertainty and where public feedback from the actions arrives gradually over time. The leading application is the adoption of new technologies. The socially optimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015332590

Local policy misperceptions and investment : experimental evidence from firm decision makers

Blesse, Sebastian; Buhlmann, Florian; Heil, Philipp; … - 2025

We study firm responses to local policies through a survey experiment, providing randomized information on the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015393649

Heat and team production : experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Garg, Teevrat; Jagnani, Maulik; Lyons, Elizabeth - 2025

-based occupations. In our experiment, programmers were randomly assigned to work individually or in pairs under warm (29°C) or control …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015393675

THE EXPLORATORY PROCESSES OF ENTREPRENEURIAL FIRMS: THE ROLE OF PURPOSEFUL EXPERIMENTATION

Murray, Fiona; Tripsas, Mary - 2004

each firm representing a single data point in an industry-level experiment. It also extends the learning literature by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015388088

FINDING OR NOT FINDING RULES IN TIME SERIES

Lin, Jessica; Keogh, Eamonn - 2004

Given the recent explosion of interest in streaming data and online algorithms, clustering of time series subsequences has received much attention. In this work we make a surprising claim. Clustering of time series subsequences is completely meaningless. More concretely, clusters extracted from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015388165

USING NON-PARAMETRIC SEARCH ALGORITHMS TO FORECAST DAILY EXCESS STOCK RETURNS

Lael Joseph, Nathan; Brée, David S.; Kalyvas, Efstathios - 2004

Are the learning procedures of genetic algorithms (GAs) able to generate optimal architectures for artificial neural networks (ANNs) in high frequency data? In this experimental study, GAs are used to identify the best architecture for ANNs. Additional learning is undertaken by the ANNs to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015388168

IDEOLOGY, RELIGION, AND THE EVOLUTION OF COOPERATION: FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON ISRAELI KIBBUTZIM

Sosis, Richard; Ruffle, Bradley J. - 2004

Despite the putative importance of ideological commitments in the evolution of large-scale cooperation among unrelated individuals, evolutionary researchers have yet to examine empirically the relationship between ideology and cooperation. We conduct an experimental game on Israeli kibbutz...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015388278