ARFIMAX models are applied in estimating the intra-day realized volatility of the CAC40 and DAX30 indices. Volatility clustering and asymmetry characterize the logarithmic realized volatility of both indices. ARFIMAX model with time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity is the best performing...

Structural time series models are formulated in terms of components, such as trends, seasonals and cycles, that have a direct interpretation. As well as providing a framework for time series decomposition by signal extraction, they can be used for forecasting and for ‘nowcasting’. The...

We develop and implement linear formulations of convex stochastic dominance relations based on decreasing absolute risk aversion for discrete and polyhedral choice sets. Our approach is based on a piecewise-exponential representation of utility and a local linear approximation to the...

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the...

This paper introduces a new framework for the dynamic modelling of univariate and multivariate point processes. The so-called latent factor intensity (LFI) model is based on the assumption that the intensity function consists of univariate or multivariate observation driven dynamic components...

We derive a functional central limit theorem for the empirical spectral measure or discretely averaged (integrated) periodogram of a multivariate long range dependent stochastic process in a degenerating neighborhood of the origin. We show that, under certain restrictions on the memory...

We propose a new Stochastic Dominance (SD) criterion based on standard risk aversion, which assumes decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence. To implement the proposed criterion, we develop linear systems of optimality conditions for a given prospect relative to a...

This paper considers the asymptotic distribution of the covariance of a nonstationary fractionally integrated process with the stationary increments of another such process - possibly, itself. Questions of interest include the relationship between the harmonic representation of these random...

We represent risk factors as sums of orthogonal components capturing fluctuations with cycles of different length. The representation leads to novel spectral factor models in which systematic risk is allowed (without being forced) to vary across frequencies. Frequency-specific systematic risk is...