We consider a multivariate unobserved component time series model to disentangle the short-term and medium-term cycle for the G7 countries and the Netherlands using four key macroeconomic and financial time series. The novel aspect of our approach is that we simultaneously decompose the...

This paper presents exact recursions for calculating the mean and mean square error matrix of the state vector given the observations for the multi-variate linear Gaussian state-space model in the case where the initial state vector is (partially) diffuse