This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot-com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of Technical Analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals with...

The internal models amendment to the Basel Accord allows banks to use internal models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds, which are used to calculate the required capital that banks must hold in reserve as a protection against negative changes in the value of their trading portfolios. As...

International tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of...

This article explains how to obtain straightforward extensions of the most popular univariate non-nested statistics, and of the RESET-test, to a multivariate context and examines how to use these tests to compare alternative factor demand systems. The empirical application involves the classical...

Country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. The importance of country ratings is underscored by the existence of several major country risk rating agencies, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, Euromoney, Institutional...

The purpose of the paper is to (i) show that univariate GARCH is not a special case of multivariate GARCH, specifically the Full BEKK model, except under parametric restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the random coefficient autoregressive coefficient matrix, that are not consistent with...

This article develops the dynamic asymmetric GARCH (or DAGARCH) model that generalizes asymmetric GARCH models such as that of Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (GJR), introduces multiple thresholds, and makes the asymmetric effect time dependent. We provide the stationarity conditions for the...

The paper describes alternative methods of estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds based on two calibrated models and three conditional volatility or GARCH models. The five models of volatility are used to estimate and forecast the VaR thresholds of an equally-weighted portfolio, comprising...