This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New...

We investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics in the post-WWII U.S. recessions via non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs. The relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear VARs in terms of i) magnitude of the reaction...

We investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics in the post- WWII U.S. recessions via non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs. The relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear VARs in terms of (i) magnitude of the...

What are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics? We answer this question by estimating non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs with post-WWII U.S. data. The relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear VARs in terms of (i)...

The relationship between bank competition, firm access to finance, and economic growth is a much debated topic in the economic literature and in policy circles. This paper uses a panel of 23 manufacturing sectors over 2002–10 to investigate the impact of bank competition on industry growth in...