This paper presents an overview of the procedures that are involved in prediction with machine learning models with special emphasis on deep learning. We study suitable objective functions for prediction in high-dimensional settings and discuss the role of regularization methods in order to...

How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add products and countries sequentially, in an...

We propose an optimal architecture for deep neural networks of given size. The optimal architecture obtains from maximizing the minimum number of linear regions approximated by a deep neural network with a ReLu activation function. The accuracy of the approximation function relies on the neural...

This paper proposes a novel methodology to detect Granger causality in mean in vector autoregressive settings using feedforward neural networks. The approach accommodates unknown dependence structures between the elements of highly-dimensional multivariate time series with weak and strong...

Using detailed data on trade and tariffs from 1992-2007, the authors examine how the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement has affected trade with nonmembers and external tariffs facing nonmembers. First, the paper examines the effect of preferential and external tariff reduction on import growth from...

We show that the `fear' of globalisation can be rationalised by economic theory in the standard AD/AS equilibrium model, if we substitute the coordinational role of the Auctioneer by an implementation device based on learning (Guesnerie, 1992). When endowing producers with a learning ability to...

How do exporters enter and expand their product scope and geographical presence? We show that exporters add products and countries sequentially, in an interdependent process. This process can be explained by a mechanism where new exporters are uncertain about the profitability of their products...