From Bayesian estimates of a vector auto regression (VAR) which allows for both coefficient drift and stochastic volatility, we obtain the following three results. First, beginning in approximately 1975, the responsiveness of core inflation to changes in energy prices in the United States fell...

Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However, inflation volatility has been typically neglected,...

We propose a blended approach which combines identification via heteroskedasticity with the widely used methods of sign restrictions, narrative restrictions, and external instruments.Since heteroskedasticity in the reduced form can be exploited to point identify a set of orthogonal shocks, its...

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...