The literature usually ascribes time-variation in discount rates to time-variation in the risk premium. This is probably also true over the short- and medium term. This paper set out to explore time-variation in investors required return over the longer term and the resulting impact on equity...

While the literature on inflation and stock prices is plentiful, there is little literature on deflation and stock prices. This paper explores the empirical data and makes a theoretical analysis of the likely impact on stock prices when expectations changes from inflation to deflation. The main...

One place of particular recent investor interest has been dividend investing. Dividend investing has historically outperformed both the broader market and value investing, and at the same time shown lower risk. Dividend investing ‘overlap' with both value investing and low-volatility...

The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13% to 31% of the time since 1963. This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets, but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum, which posits that the stock market is micro efficient, but macro inefficient....

Large numbers of doctors, engineers, and other skilled workers from developing counties choose to move to other countries. Do their choices threaten development? The answer appears so obvious that their movement is most commonly known by the pejorative term “brain drain”. This paper...

International migrants who seek protection also participate in the economy. Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences. This paper places conservative bounds on those...

The demand for skills exceeds supply, both within the Pacific Islands and the high-income countries of the Pacific Rim. Enhancing skilled migration therefore has the potential to generate large economic gains. The Global Skill Partnership is a migration model that can support such mutually...

Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants' skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cashflow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias...

The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously...

The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously...