This research highlights the role played by the media in the inflation expectations formation process of different types of respondents in Ukraine. Using a large news corpus and machine learning techniques I constructed news-based measures transforming text into quantitative indicators, which...

We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect subsequent monthly consumption decisions relative to those in a...

Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they are central to the policy debate. At the same time, a growing literature on inattention suggests that individuals, and therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to...

Colombia is particularly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather fluctuations. In this context, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to incorporate these second-round effects into a small open...

We examine whether inflation expectations obtained by open- and closed-ended questions lead to different inflation expectations through a randomized controlled trial. We find that different questionnaires measure significantly different inflation expectations, especially in the short term. We...

This paper uses microdata from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Household Inflation Expectations survey to obtain an accurate read of households' true inflation expectations by studying how different demographic groups respond (or do not respond) to the inflation expectations question in the...

This paper studies the causal effect of inflation literacy on inflation expectations and trust in the central bank using a randomized control trial (RCT) on a representative sample of the German population. In an experiment with two steps, we first test the effect of non-numerical information...

We show that food price changes have a persistent impact on UK consumers' inflation expectations. Over 60% of households report that their inflation perceptions are heavily influenced by food prices and display a stronger association between their inflation expectations and perceptions. In other...

We provide evidence for an expectation gap, where risk-averse as well as impatient households and experts provide significantly higher prior inflation forecasts. Using a survey randomized control trial (RCT), we can show that information about inflation forecasts closes this expectations gap....

How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a...