This policy brief discusses trends in consumer inflation uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty measures are from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations and from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

In this paper, we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' individual long-run inflation expectations utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer's rotating panel micro-structure. Our results indicate that long-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last...

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in...

Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our...

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We check whether their expectations are in line with the Phillips Curve, the Taylor Rule and the Income Fisher Equation. We...

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts, namely the Phillips curve, the Taylor rule and the Income Fisher equation. We observe that 50% of the surveyed population have...

This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher...

We show that, when forming expectations about aggregate inflation, consumers rely on the prices of goods in their personal grocery bundles. Our analysis uses novel representative micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and...