We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

Classical growth convergence regressions fail to account for various sources of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. While recent contributions are able to address either the one or the other, we present a simple two-step method to address both issues. Based on a slightly augmented version of a...