We introduce a new weekly database of spot and forward US-UK exchange rates and interest rates to examine the integration of forward exchange markets during the classical Gold Standard period (1880-1914). Using threshold autoregressions (TARs), we estimate the transaction cost band of covered...

When testing for a change in mean of a time series, the null hypothesis is no change in mean. However, a change in mean causes a bias in the estimation of serial correlation parameters. This bias can cause nonmonotonic power to the point that if the change is big enough, power can go to zero. In...

Several widely used tests for a changing mean exhibit nonmonotonic power in ¯nite samples due to \incorrect" estimation of nuisance parameters under the alternative. In this paper, we study the issue of nonmonotonic power in testing for changing mean. We investigate the asymptotic power...