Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this paper, we evaluate alternative covariance matrix forecasting methods by looking at (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track...

In this paper we document that at the aggregate stock market level the unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns and positively related to future volatility. We demonstrate how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset...

The portfolio performance measures based on the Value-at-Risk (VaR) concept have gained widespread popularity and are often used in empirical studies. Unfortunately, we have noticed that in majority of empirical studies a VaR-based performance measure is used inconsistently. The goal of this...

Despite the ever-growing interest in trend following and a series of publications in academic journals, there is still a great shortage of theoretical results on the properties of trend following rules. Our paper fills this gap by comparing and contrasting the two most popular trend following...

Recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, using a large data set of...

In this paper we consider a loss averse investor equipped with a specific, but still quite general, utility function motivated by behavioral finance. We show that under some concrete assumptions about the form of this utility one can derive closed-form solutions for the investor's portfolio...

In the presence of a risk-free asset the investment opportunity set obtained via the Markowitz portfolio optimization procedure is usually characterized in terms of the vector of excess returns on individual risky assets and the variance-covariance matrix. We show that the investment opportunity...

In this paper, we provide evidence that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample through the use of a set of lagged macroeconomic variables. We find that it is possible to forecast the size premium over time horizons that range from one month to one year. We...

Financial advisors commonly recommend that the investment horizon should be rather long in order to benefit from the "time diversification". In this case, in order to choose the optimal portfolio, it is necessary to estimate the risk and reward of several alternative portfolios over a long-run...

It is widely accepted that, when return distributions are non-normal, the use of the Sharpe ratio can lead to misleading conclusions. It is well documented that deviations of hedge fund return distributions from normality are statistically significant. The literature on performance evaluation...