An understanding of the determination of real wages is crucial in analysing the determination of the natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU. Uses cointegration techniques to examine a core theoretical model of the long-run determinants of real wages involving unit labour costs, unemployment,...

We generalize the analysis of inflation bias with dynamic Phillips curves in three respects. First, we examine the discretionary (time consistent) solution in cases where the Phillips curve has both a backward-looking and forward-looking component. Second, we show that the commitment (time...

Most recent work deriving optimal monetary policy utilising New Neo-Classical Synthesis (NNCS) models abstract from the impact of monetary policy on the government`s finances, by assuming that any change in the government`s budget can be financed through lump sum taxes. In this paper, we assume...

A common feature of exchange rate misalignments is that they produce a divergence between traded and non-traded goods sectors, leading to pressures on monetary policy makers to react. In this paper we develop a small open economy model which features traded and non-traded goods sectors with...

Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy.  We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios.  Analysis...