The empirical objective of this study is to account for the time-variation the covariances between markets. Using data on sixteen national stock markets, we estimate a multivariate factor model in which the volatility of returns is induced by changing volatility in the orthogonal factors. Excess...

In this paper, we examine a new survey of 6,010 United States households and estimate a model for the allocation of total net worth among different assets. The paper has three main aims. The first is to investigate the extent to which a conventional portfolio choice model can explain the...

We use a monetary overlapping-generations model to discuss the cause and durability of the marked fall in the volatility of inflation in recent decades. In our model, agents have to forecast inflation, and they do so using two "heuristics." One is based on lagged inflation, the other on an...

I was delighted to be asked to give the IFS Annual Lecture for 1994, not least because of my own connections with the Institute. These began with my participation in the meetings of IFS, and continued as a member of the Meade Committee in the 1970s. The work of that Committee — led by James...

I argue that it is useful to think about the optimal design of monetary institutions using the insights from the theory of incomplete contracts. The core of the monetary policy problem is the uncertainty about future social decisions resulting from the impossibility and the undesirability of...