The authors attempt to account for the covariances between stock markets and to assess their integration. They estimate a factor model for sixteen national stock market returns whose volatility is induced by changing volatility in the factors. Unanticipated returns depend on innovations in...

The volatility of inflation and output has fallen in most advanced economies in the 1990s and 2000s. We use a monetary overlapping generations model to discuss the cause and durability of this macroeconomic change. In that model, agents' decision rules require them to make forecasts of future...

In 2009, demand in the world’s major economies fell, relative to its pre-crisis trend, by around US$2.5 trillion or 5% of GDP. The financial crisis damaged virtually every country. Global imbalances helped to fuel the financial crisis. And today they threaten the sustainability of the recovery...