In 2009, just before the full outbreak of the global financial crisis, Olivier Blanchard (2009) published an article giving a favourable appraisal of the state of macroeconomics. He came to this verdict on the basis that, after a long period of fierce theoretical debate, the discipline had...

The author studies a simple dynamic general equilibrium monetary model to interpret key macroeconomic developments in the U.S. economy both before and after the Great Recession. In normal times, when the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is above the interest paid on reserves, countercyclical...

This paper finds that in 1824 and 1825 the Bank of England failed to understand the extent of its influence over economic activity and thus together with the Government made serious policy errors that led to the 1825 crisis. Specifically, I argue that the second post-war debt conversion caused a...

The recent consensus view, that the gold standard was the leading cause of the worldwide Great Depression 1929-33, stems from two propositions: (1) Under the gold standard, deflationary shocks were transmitted between countries and, (2) for most countries, continued adherence to gold prevented...

Over the four years beginning in the summer of 1929, financial markets, labor markets and goods markets all virtually ceased to function. Throughout this, the government policymaking apparatus seemed helpless. Since the end of the Great Depression, macroeconomists have labored diligently in an...

The recovery from the recession after the financial crisis, in both the UK and the US, has been very slow compared with other similar events in history. During the period before the financial crash and afterwards, monetary policy deviated from the very effeective rules-based approach of the...

In the last decade, there has been a crisis of monetary regulation of the world economy. This is confirmed by the fact that measures of monetary stimulation and assistance to the banking systems of the EU and the United States do not solve the accumulated problems even in developed countries,...

The 1830s were a decade of enormous importance in American economic history. A disproportionate amount of attention has been paid to the Panic of 1837. The Crisis of 1839, however, led to four years of deflation and depression. This paper shows that events in 1839 followed a different path than...

We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions rely on economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) staff. This paper analyzes the forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment by the FRB staff and the FOMC from 2009 through 2016. Forecasts for the current year are positively...