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We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible … volatility increase before a crash, but we do not see this as a consistent behavior. We examine forty well-known bubbles and … studied bubbles, the crash follows a period of lower volatility, reminiscent of the idiom of a “lull before the storm”. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762277
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989552
A nonstationary dividend yield, having a unit root, is seen as proof of bubbles (Craine 1993). This inference is not … valid. A sufficient condition for the absence, respectively presence of bubbles is the uniform divergence, respectively … equilibrium dividend yield is a random walk without a deterministic trend or drift, but bubbles are still absent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013058778
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors' subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490485
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors' subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market troughs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018988
timing bubbles and crashes of individual stocks. Our findings imply that sophisticated investors may not always trade against … rational speculative bubbles, not entirely from sentiment-driven overpricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012931108
theory of asset price bubbles. This is a rational asset pricing model that is shown to be consistent with the existing …This paper provides a new explanation for closed-end fund (CEF) discounts and premiums using the local martingale … research for their resolution. This bubble theory also applies equally well to understanding discounts and premiums on exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960808
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617689
speculative bubbles and/or noise trading behavior. Our empirical findings for the US stock market covering the 1871:1 - 2000 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503717
, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are derived both for a model without bubbles and for a model with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094612