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Movements in expected returns (ER) can cause a bias in measured autocorrelations, and the resulting spurious component is positive for infrequent regime shifts. We demonstrate this point analytically and investigate its empirical prevalence. In a key contribution, we use shifts in ex ante ER...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405361
This paper examines the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries by applying parametric and nonparametric approaches. It also explores the idiosyncratic risk puzzle by dividing firms into groups based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307488
We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has called many but not all crashes. Those called have high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057068
This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability. Using 596 stock options traded at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046782
that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability …. Predictability is concentrated on smaller stocks and more prominent on firms with bad news, consistent with limits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351271
We suggest a procedure to predict individual stock liquidity and study the relation between stock liquidity forecasts and average stock returns. Our forecast model reduces the root-mean-squared error by 12% for the Amihud (2002) liquidity measure compared to realized stock liquidity in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351379
, I review the existing literature and reflect on asset pricing tests to detect bubbles. I show that the emergence of … rational bubbles within the EMH framework is indeed possible as long as a number of assumptions is not violated. As researchers … show, these assumption do not hold in practice, which means that rational bubbles can be ruled out. Thus, a bubbles is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908576
latter can be used to proxy for the likelihood of tail events like crashes and bubbles in a market and, thus, is a crucial … measure of stock market stability. Since crashes and bubbles are, almost by definition, unpredictable, we, unlike scarce prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113770
We extend the constant discount factor model with intrinsic bubbles developed in Froot and Obstfeld (1991) to account … component in both series. This inference is robust to whether or not the parameters governing the intrinsic bubbles process are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894388
Empirical evidence has demonstrated that there are bubbles in the prices of financial assets, in other words, when … to the following questions: What reasons are given by existing literature to explain why bubbles exist in the prices of … financial assets? What are the implications of the existence of these bubbles for public policy? What research topics are linked …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130437