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To capture the well documented time series momentum and reversal in asset price, we develop a continuous-time asset … time series momentum of moving averages over short-time horizons and reversal significantly outperforms, both in-sample and … out-of-sample, the S&P500 and pure strategies based on either time series momentum or reversal only. The results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962880
investigate whether investors can exploit this predictability in portfolio allocation. Cash-flow and return forecasting … significant out-of-sample predictability for many industries. Real-time portfolio-rotation strategies that buy industries with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968901
Predicting the nature of future returns is fundamentally about what one believes about the future. And the tools we have for forming beliefs are deduction and induction. Rather than naively using historical return moments as our estimates for future moments, we ought to also use these tools....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870906
returns, a significant impact of financial shocks, excess return predictability, and asset price momentum and reversal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012801368
aversion (CARA) agent, who faces execution costs when trading correlated risky assets with return predictability. The optimal … studies show that the execution costs diminish the importance of asset return predictability on the agent's optimal investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871582
We examine low-turnover zero-investment "factor" portfolios constructed from various stock characteristics previously shown to predict returns. The nine different factor portfolios all exhibit negative market betas. Our central result is that a more negative beta across factors predicts higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080208
concentrates on the predictive power of aggregate cross-sectional or macroeconomic predictors, I analyze the return predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349284
risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability …. -- Aggregate relative risk aversion ; Equilibrium asset price processes ; Excess Volatility ; Return predictability ; Stock market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002753247
return, size, value, momentum, low beta and quality. I find predictability for the low beta factor and moderate …This article comprehensively reviews the predictability of six equity factors. These factors are the market excess … predictability for the size factor. The results for other factors are mixed. Moreover, predicted returns for the market, size, value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963227
-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in … stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036031