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Let e and Sigma be respectively the vector of shocks and its variance covariance matrix in a linear system of equations in reduced form. This article shows that a unique orthogonal variance decomposition can be obtained if we impose a restriction that maximizes the trace of A, a positive...
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This paper examines the impact of intraday periodicity on forecasting realized volatility using a heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) framework. We show that periodicity inflates the variance of the realized volatility and biases jump estimators. This combined effect adversely affects...
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have not been previously studied. We find that the cross-predictability in returns remains even after firm pairs with …
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We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present …-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also …
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