The climate damage function used to assess the economic impact of secular changes in temperature and precipitation is one of the most speculative components of integrated assessment models of climate change. Existing work informing this debate is based on pooled empirical models incorporating...

Academia, and economics in particular, faces increased scrutiny because of gender imbalance. This paper studies the job market for entry-level faculty positions. We employ machine learning methods to analyze gendered patterns in the text of 9,000 reference letters written in support of 2,800...

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-incomecountries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sectorstress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements inprimary commodities a key role in...

We motivate and empirically analyse the idea that democratic regime change is not a discrete event but a two-stage process: in the first stage, autocracies enter into an ‘episode’ of political liberalization which can last for years or even decades; in the second stage, the ultimate outcome...

A large body of literature estimates private returns to R&D adopting the Griliches knowledge production framework which ignores the potential impact of spillovers on consistent estimation. Using a panel of 12 manufacturing industries across ten OECD economies, we investigate whether ignoring...

This paper provides the first micro-level evidence for the existence and patterns of intra-national protectionism in China. We demonstrate that drug advertising inspections are used by provincial governments to discriminate against firms from outside the province and document how the degree of...

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigatethe issue of...