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The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … information improves Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts as compared to popular tail risk forecasting methods. Under an …
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1 Introduction -- 2 Motivation -- Part I MEASURES -- 3 Basic Terms and Notation -- 4 Historical Value-at-Risk -- 5 Sensitivities -- 6 Stress Tests -- 7 Analytical Value-at-Risk -- 8 Expected Shortfall -- 9 Model Choices -- 10 A Monte Carlo Modi cation -- 11 Support Measures -- Part II OPERATIONS...
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