Showing 71 - 80 of 911,893
of moment inequalities, and therefore assuming a known likelihood function suffers from the risk of misspecification, and … concentration theory for the support function, and prove the semi-parametric Bernstein von Mises theorem. Finally, the proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096554
In cargo logistics, a key performance measure is transport risk, defined as the deviation of the actual arrival time … the conditional (i.e., state-dependent) density function of transport risk. We demonstrate that using alternative methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014139688
feasible and sensible using actual and simulated data. Sampling experiments compare inferences from the non-parametric Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026900
market volatility is modeled to have two components, one due to the diffusion risk and the other due to the jump risk. The … existence of leverage effects, the return-volatility relations are determined by interactions between risk premia and leverage …This paper investigates the return-volatility relation by taking into account the model specification problem. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014211845
real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180723
endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and … analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct endogenous risk wedges account for these differences. Supply and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362538
This paper introduces a new approach to forecast pooling methods based on a nonparametric prior for the weight vector combining predictive densities. The first approach places a Dirichlet process prior on the weight vector and generalizes the static linear pool. The second approach uses a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828453
Over the last decade, big data have poured into econometrics, demanding new statistical methods for analysing high-dimensional data and complex non-linear relationships. A common approach for addressing dimensionality issues relies on the use of static graphical structures for extracting the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868987
The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we develop a model for inflation forecasting that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013298371
This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325710