We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime...

Diffusion functions in term-structure models are measures of uncertainty about future price movements and are directly related to the risk associated with holding financial securities. Correct specification of diffusion functions is crucial in pricing options and other derivative securities. In...

In this paper, we develop a discrete choice framework to quantify the economic benefits of payments modernization in Canada. Focusing on Canada's large-value transfer system (LVTS), we first estimate participants' preferences for liquidity cost, payment safety and the network effect by...